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Publikation auf einen Blick
Type of publication: Consultation paper
Publisher: Systemiq
Commissioned by: Not specified
Geographical focus: China, with global implications for agricultural and protein markets
Year of publication: 2026
Target audience: Policymakers, the agriculture and food industry, investors, researchers and stakeholders across the protein value chain
What is the publication about?
The publication explores whether China has begun to apply to its food system some of the same industrial policy tools that previously shaped the country’s rise in sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles.
The starting point is a development that has been shaping China’s food system for years: the country is now the world’s largest importer of agricultural commodities. At the same time, according to the publication, Chinese policymakers are increasingly concerned about dependence on international supply chains, particularly for animal feed and animal protein.
Against this backdrop, the publication develops a central hypothesis: China could seek to strengthen food security not solely by increasing conventional agricultural production, but through a combination of productivity gains, biotechnology, biomanufacturing and alternative protein sources.
Key findings
Food security is becoming an industrial policy priority
The authors describe food security as increasingly embedded in China’s economic and national security planning. New Five-Year Plans and national strategies link conventional agricultural policy with areas such as synthetic biology, biomanufacturing and new protein sources.
The publication does not identify any single measure as decisive. Instead, it emphasises the interaction between policy direction, investment, research and regulatory support.
Early signals of a protein transition
As indications of an emerging shift, the publication points to new innovation clusters for fermentation technologies, alternative proteins and agricultural biotechnology. At the same time, state-aligned investment is flowing into research institutions, production capacity and biotechnology infrastructure.
The publication pays particular attention to alternative proteins, including plant-based, fermentation-derived and cultivated products. These are described as part of a longer-term strategy that could reduce China’s dependence on imports.
Modelled scenarios point to lower import demand
A major part of the publication examines scenarios for 2030, 2040 and 2050. These are explicitly presented not as forecasts, but as modelled projections of possible developments.
In the baseline scenario, China’s soya bean imports fall by 25% by 2030 compared with 2025. According to the publication, the main drivers are more efficient feed formulations, productivity gains and changes in protein production.
For the following decades, the authors describe an increasingly diversified Chinese food system in which alternative proteins account for a growing share of supply and China could even become an exporter in some animal-protein categories.
The impact could extend far beyond China
The publication emphasises that changes in Chinese demand could have direct consequences for international supply chains. Particular attention is given to countries whose export structures depend heavily on Chinese imports of commodities such as soya beans or beef.
At the same time, the publication discusses potential implications for alternative proteins, aquaculture, biomanufacturing and emerging supplier countries. Rather than offering specific market forecasts, it focuses on possible development pathways and their consequences for different stakeholder groups.
Why is the publication worth reading?
China’s Food Future does not treat alternative proteins as an isolated field of innovation, but as part of a broader strategy to strengthen food security. In doing so, the publication brings together agriculture, protein production, biotechnology and industrial policy within a single framework.
Readers will not find a conventional market analysis of individual product categories. Instead, the paper explores how policy objectives, technological development and trade could interact. Particularly relevant are the signals it identifies for assessing whether early political and industrial initiatives are developing into a broader structural transformation – and what role animal and alternative proteins could play in that process.
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* Transparency Notice: The publications featured on Foodtech Now! are selected and curated by the editorial team based on their relevance to the international protein industry. The analysis of the original publication and the preparation of this article were carried out with the support of artificial intelligence. This article is intended as an overview and does not replace reading the full original publication. The original source remains the authoritative reference for all content and statements.
Header image: imago | NurPhoto
